Market Statistics Report for January 30, 2024

Market Dashboard – Sales Price / Avg Sq Ft

This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.
All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, a large part of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.
All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land,
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

Daily Market Snapshot – City Ranking

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan
area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very
small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.

Market Index

Jan 25 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17
largest cities.

Market Index Commentary

Yet another all-green chart with 17 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month.
There has been an average increase of 12.4% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, a strong rise but
down slightly from the 12.6% we recorded last week. The drop in interest rates that started in October is bringing
more offers for homes listed for sale. However, there are also far more new listings arriving on the market than this
time last year, which is stopping the market from heating up too fast. Year to date we have seen 7,467 new listings.
This is up more than 22% from 2023 and even up 13% from 2022 and 10% from 2021. Nobody should be
complaining about a lack of fresh supply anymore, especially in the higher price ranges.
Demand is improving even faster, with 7,428 listings under contract, up 41% compared with the beginning of 2024.
The monthly sales rate is still stuck around 4,000 because that depends on contracts signed during December
which were unusually weak. We should start to see improving closing volumes in February.
Leading the pack once again are Gilbert, Glendale, Surprise, Phoenix, and Peoria. The laggards include Goodyear,
Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. The top end of the market is seeing a lot of new supply.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 3 that remain buyer's markets, with
Buckeye and Maricopa seeing a large amount of competition with supply from new home builders.
With demand and supply both increasing, we should see a recovery in transaction volumes and firm pricing, without
the risk of runaway appreciation. However, sentiment remains uncertain and volatile, so it would be wise not to look
away for very long, or the situation may catch you by surprise. Of course, the Cromford® Report will not be looking
away at all. We remain obsessed with this stuff.

Latest S & P / Case – Shiller Home Price Index

Jan 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period September to November 2023. This means the typical home
sale closed in mid-October, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on
the day it is released.

We have 7 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the first time in 9
months. 13 cities declined over the last month with Seattle the most affected.

Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
1. Miami +0.3%
2. Cleveland +0.3%
3. New York +0.3%
4. Charlotte +0.2%
5. Las Vegas +0.2%
6. Tampa +0.1%
7. Los Angeles +0.1%
8. Atlanta 0.0%
9. Boston -0.2%
10. Washington -0.3%
11. Phoenix -0.3%
12. Chicago -0.4%
13. Detroit -0.4%
14. San Diego -0.5%
15. Dallas -0.6%
16. Minneapolis -0.8%
17. Denver -0.9%
18. Portland -1.0%
19. San Francisco -1.3%
20. Seattle -1.4%

Phoenix has dropped from 2nd to 11th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was
-0.18%, so Phoenix fell just below that standard.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
1. Detroit +8.2%
2. San Diego +8.0%
3. New York +7.4%
4. Cleveland +7.4%
5. Los Angeles +7.2%
6. Miami +7.2%
7. Boston +7.1%
8. Chicago +7.0%
9. Minneapolis +7.0%
10. Atlanta +5.9%
11. Washington +4.7%
12. Tampa +3.4%
13. Minneapolis +2.7%
14. Phoenix +2.5%
15. Las Vegas +2.1%
16. San Francisco +2.0%
17. Dallas +1.7%
18. Seattle +1.6%
19. Denver +1.5%
20. Portland -0.7%

Phoenix has crept up from 18th to 14th place but is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. 19 of the 20
cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and Portland is again doing relatively poorly.
The national average is +5.1% year over year. Phoenix is showing less than half that percentage.