Market Statistics Report for May 8, 2024

Market Dashboard – Price per Sq Foot - Index

Daily Market Snapshot – City Ranking

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan
area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very
small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.

Cromford Market Index

May 2 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest
cities.

Cromford Market Index Commentary

Once again, we are seeing small signs of improvement in the market for sellers in certain sub-markets.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.7%, up from +1.4% last week and continuing a trend that
started four weeks ago.
We have 11 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 6 have declined.
This is also better than last week.
Paradise Valley, Peoria, and Goodyear are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Avondale and
Chandler. Queen Creek, Maricopa and Cave Creek are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye
remains at the bottom of the table, but Maricopa is threatening to take its place. Chandler is still far out in front at
the top. Queen Creek is now well below 80 while Maricopa has joined Buckeye below the 70 level. Buyers have
strong negotiating power at these three locations.
11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets now that Paradise Valley has joined the group. We have 1 city (Surprise)
that is balanced, while 5 are buyer's markets, although Goodyear looks set to leave that group very shortly.

Average Price Per Square Foot Commentary - Increase

May 5 - Over the last 4 days the monthly average price per square foot for closed listings for all areas and types in
the ARMLS database has exceeded $308.

This means it has made a new all-time record high - $308.01.

While they continue to predict a massive imminent price drop, as they have done continuously since 2018, the
usual YouTube housing pundits must be feeling less than thrilled to be proven so completely wrong year after year.

However, they remain undaunted. Their predictions have little to no substance behind them and I notice a lack of
confidence creeping into their voices. Bad news attracts clicks is something they do understand.

Again and again, they make the mistake of thinking a weakening of demand will force prices down. The market
sees low volumes when demand is weak, but to get prices to come down you need excess supply and desperate
sellers.

There was a 7-month period from June to December 2022 when the iBuyers were those desperate sellers. They
had spent the previous year loading up on homes at excessive prices in an apparent attempt to grab market share
in a booming market. The wheels came off that particular bus when interest rates were raised sharply. Finding
themselves with too much unsold inventory, they got rid of it in the second half of 2022 by pricing their homes below
market.

Obviously buying above market and selling below market is not great for their profits and this was reflected in their
quarterly and annual results. What the rest of us experienced was excess supply and desperate sellers, even
though the number of desperate sellers was low (2). Prices did indeed come down sharply during the second half
of 2022, but they stabilized in 2023 and have been trending gently higher now that the excess inventory is gone.

I expect the usual seasonal decline in average $/SF during the 3Q, but for now, the market deserves some
respect for its resilience and sellers can celebrate the new all-time high.

Maricopa County Affidavits of Value – April 2024

May 4 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's April filings and here is
what we found:
• There were 7,248 closed transactions, up 6% from 6,840 in April 2023 and up 5% from March.
• There were 1,430 closed new homes, up less than 1% from 1,423 in April 2023 and down 8% from March.
• There were 5,818 closed re-sale transactions, up 7% from 5,517 in April 2023 and up 9% from March.
• The overall median sales price in April was $476,545, up 4.7% from April 2023 and up 0.3% from March.
• The re-sale median sales price was $465,000, up 6.9% from April 2023 and up 1.3% from March.
• The new home median sales price was $515,279, up 0.4% from April 2023 and also up 0.4% from March.

Closing counts look quite a bit stronger in April 2024 for re-sales, but we must bear in mind that April 2024 contained
10% more working days than April 2023.

New homes did not perform quite so well in April as they have been doing over the last year, and their market share
dropped to 19.7%, their lowest percentage since July 2022.

These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.