Market Statistics Report for
November 15, 2023
Market Dashboard
This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.
All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, a large part of Pinal county and a small part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data. All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.
Daily Market Snapshot – City Ranking
The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.
Market Index
Nov 9 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities.
Market Index Commentary:
Based on the numbers in this table. the market is still weakening at a fast rate, with an average decline of 16.3% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is worse than the 15.8% decline we saw last week.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Cave Creek, Buckeye, Mesa, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Surprise and Phoenix. The slowest declines are to be found in Gilbert, Goodyear and Tempe.
10 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Peoria and Cave Creek in the balanced zone while Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Maricopa has joined Queen Creek and Buckeye below the 80 level. Among the secondary cities, Casa Grande and Gold Canyon are also below 80 while
Litchfield Park is below 90.
Tolleson, Laveen, Sun Lakes, Anthem, El Mirage and Apache Junction are the strongest of the secondary cities, all with CMIs over 180.
Despite the above, we are just starting to see a slight tick-up in some of the listings-under-contract numbers, as the market reacts to the very recent decline in mortgage rates since the start of November.
Monthly Table – 41 Cities Ranked by Annual Avg $/SF:
Nov 13 - The monthly table of 41 cities ranked by annual average $/SF has been published today.
It is striking how far Paradise Valley has moved in a positive price direction (12.7%) over the past 12 months, opening up an even wider gap with the rest of Greater Phoenix. Scottsdale has also moved slightly higher by 1.3%, but Paradise Valley is now priced at 71% higher than Scottsdale, up from a 54% premium last year.
Wittmann and Youngtown, both tiny and therefore subject to volatility, are the only other cities showing a positive move over the past 12 months, based on the ANNUAL average $/SF. The monthly average $/SF for these locations is close to useless because of the small sample size for sales in a single month.
At the other end of the scale, Arizona City, Sun City West, Sun City, Tonopah, Queen Creek, Avondale, Florence and Surprise have seen the largest declines in their average $/SF, down more than 5%. We conclude that the huge rise in mortgage rates has negatively affected the lower priced areas on the perimeter of the valley more than the luxury locations and those closer to the center.
