Market Statistics Report for April 3, 2025
Market Dashboard – Dashboard
This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.
All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa County, a large part of Pinal County and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa County, a large part of Pinal County and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.
All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land,
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.
City Ranking – Snapshot
This table ranks the cities by their annual average sales price per square foot. Only single family detached homes are
included in these numbers. Information for the large and secondary cities is current as of the date shown. Data for the
11 small cities is updated on a monthly basis, and is measured on the 13th of each month.The primary function of this
table is to show the least and most affordable areas in the Phoenix metropolitan area together with longer term pricing
trends. Annual averages are based on a relatively large number of sales. Therefore they are not as subject to rapid
change as monthly averages. The downside is that they do not necessarily represent the current market very
accurately, since they include sales from up to a year ago. Pricing may have moved a great deal since then.
included in these numbers. Information for the large and secondary cities is current as of the date shown. Data for the
11 small cities is updated on a monthly basis, and is measured on the 13th of each month.The primary function of this
table is to show the least and most affordable areas in the Phoenix metropolitan area together with longer term pricing
trends. Annual averages are based on a relatively large number of sales. Therefore they are not as subject to rapid
change as monthly averages. The downside is that they do not necessarily represent the current market very
accurately, since they include sales from up to a year ago. Pricing may have moved a great deal since then.
Cromford Market Index
March 27 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest
cities.
cities.
Cromford Market Index Commentary
The table is still reporting a swing in favor of buyers and the swing has started to move faster again. We
have 13 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month and 4 that have improved. Avondale
is the only city with a high percentage improvement of 12%, while Glendale and Maricopa managed
4%. Surprise only gave sellers a barely detectable gain of 0.3%.
have 13 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month and 4 that have improved. Avondale
is the only city with a high percentage improvement of 12%, while Glendale and Maricopa managed
4%. Surprise only gave sellers a barely detectable gain of 0.3%.
All the other cities moved in favor of buyers, with Tempe, Goodyear and Queen Creek the strongest in
that respect.
that respect.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -2.7% while last week we saw -1.9%. This continues
the trend that started last week. The difference is still only slight however.
the trend that started last week. The difference is still only slight however.
We have 9 cities that are still seller's markets, 2 that are balanced and 6 that are buyer's markets. Peoria
is the latest city to join that latter group with its CMI falling below 90%.
is the latest city to join that latter group with its CMI falling below 90%.
Today the overall Cromford® Supply Index reached 100 for the first time since May 29, 2011 - almost
14 years ago. So it is fair to say we no longer have a housing shortage. It is also fair to say we would
not have an excess supply if it were not for demand being far weaker than normal. Our overall measure
of demand (the Cromford® Demand Index) is about 19% below normal. The implication is there are
about 24% more homes for sale than we need for the present number of buyers active in the market.
Given that we are in the middle of the peak buying season, this is a serious concern.
It is a good time to be a buyer from the point of view of negotiation power, but buyers tend to lose
motivation if they start to sense prices in decline. Closed prices have been holding up very well, with
the top end of the market doing some very heavy lifting. But there is obvious weakness in the leading
indicators of price - among the active listings and listings under contract. There is now a danger that we
might enter a negative feedback loop with a deflationary cycle taking hold. Confidence that they are not
paying too high a price is a strong element of a buyer's positive mentality, and we are now in more
danger of losing that confidence than we have been in the last 15 years.
14 years ago. So it is fair to say we no longer have a housing shortage. It is also fair to say we would
not have an excess supply if it were not for demand being far weaker than normal. Our overall measure
of demand (the Cromford® Demand Index) is about 19% below normal. The implication is there are
about 24% more homes for sale than we need for the present number of buyers active in the market.
Given that we are in the middle of the peak buying season, this is a serious concern.
It is a good time to be a buyer from the point of view of negotiation power, but buyers tend to lose
motivation if they start to sense prices in decline. Closed prices have been holding up very well, with
the top end of the market doing some very heavy lifting. But there is obvious weakness in the leading
indicators of price - among the active listings and listings under contract. There is now a danger that we
might enter a negative feedback loop with a deflationary cycle taking hold. Confidence that they are not
paying too high a price is a strong element of a buyer's positive mentality, and we are now in more
danger of losing that confidence than we have been in the last 15 years.
Significantly lower mortgage interest rates could help a lot, but desire for these still seem a little
unrealistic given the persistence of inflation above the Federal Reserve target. We can still hope for a
pleasant surprise, but we cannot depend on it.
unrealistic given the persistence of inflation above the Federal Reserve target. We can still hope for a
pleasant surprise, but we cannot depend on it.
City Ranking
