This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.

 

All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa County, a large part of Pinal County and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.

 

All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land,
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

 

 

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan
area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very
small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.

 

 

Dec 5 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest
cities.

 

 

Just like last week, we have 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over
the past month and 11 showing a decrease. However, the average change in CMI over the past month
is -2.1% while last week we saw -3.5%. Although the market has deteriorated for sellers over the month,
it is starting to benefit from falling supply. This is nothing to get excited about since it happens every
December. But the fact that it happened again in 2024 is reassuring us that the world has not completely
changed.

 

Fountain Hills is once again the worst performer, losing 16% over the most recent month, while Paradise
Valley is the best performer, rising 14%. Other cities improved by 3% or less, except for Tempe which
is up 7% and has moved from a balanced market to a seller's market.
Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Peoria, Cave Creek and Mesa deteriorated by 6% or more.

 

We have 6 cities that are seller's markets, though 4 of these are very weak seller's markets at less than
120. 6 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets.

 

Maricopa and Buckeye remain very weak with excess inventory relative to current levels of demand.
It is clear that the market is weaker in outlying areas and at the lower end of the market. The central
areas and high-end are experiencing conditions that are more favorable, though not excessively so.

 

 

Dec 10 - You may have noticed a surprising increase in the average $/SF for closed listings in
December. This has been largely driven by the luxury market where we have seen a strong number of
closings at an unusually high price per square foot in the last 9 days. Average pricing for homes with
living space of 5,000 sq. ft. or more stands at $760 per sq. ft. for December month to date. This is an
amazing $90 higher than any prior month.

 

Of course, the sample size is small at these levels. There have been only 28 closings so far this month
for homes over 5,000 sq. ft. However, this is a higher-than usual number for the first week of December
and there are several spectacular properties at eye-watering prices. Examples include:

 

• MLS 6700989 - Paradise Valley 7,607 sq. ft. sold for $9,500,000 on Dec 2. It was built new in 2020 and
cost $4,700,000 in February that year. It has changed hands twice since than and double in price in
under 5 years. (Katrina Barrett as the selling agent!)

 

• MLS 6667094 - Paradise Valley 7,493 sq. ft. sold for $9,450,000 (brand new). (Katrina Barrett as the
selling agent!)

 

Things are far more stable below 5,000 sq. ft.

 

 

A respectable $296 per sq. ft. but not quite beating the previous peak of $297 in May 2022. Among
these smaller homes there is still one with a $/SF over $1,200,

 

 

Between 2014 and 2020 homes of 5,000 sq. ft. or more hardly saw any appreciation, but this all changed
with the COVID epidemic, and they have not stopped rising since.

 

Between 2014 and 2020 homes below 5,000 sq. ft. appreciated well but really took off during the COVID
epidemic. However, since mid-2022 prices have only moved sideways.

 

The percentage gap between the general market and the high-end pricing has never been higher than
it is today. Luxury buyers are paying the highest premium we have recorded.

 

Dec 6 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's November filings
and here is what we found:

 

• There were 5,393 closed transactions, up 10.4% from 4,887 in November 2023 but down 12.3% from
October.

 

• There were 1,295 closed new homes, up 6.1% from 1,220 in November 2023 but down 13.8% from
October.

 

• There were 4,098 closed re-sale transactions, up 11.8% from 3,667 in November 2023 but down 11.8%
from October.

 

• The overall median sales price in October was $474,790, up 2.1% from November 2023 but down
0.04% from October.

 

• The new home median sales price was $504,490, down 0.1% from November 2023 and down 4.0%
from October.

 

• The re-sale median sales price was $458,500, up 2.6% from November 2023 and up 0.8% from
October.

 

There were 19 working days in November 2024 versus 20 in November 2023, so the 10.4% increase
in closings was despite a 5% headwind. Re-sales increased more than new homes, though both new
and re-sale transaction rates were better than last year.

 

New home market share fell to 24.4% in October 2024, and this is down from 26.7% a year ago.
Overall median prices were slightly lower than last month but higher than a year ago. Re-sale pricing
moved higher while new home pricing declined.

 

New homes took a market share of 24.0%, down from 24.4% last month and 25.0% a year ago.

 

These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.