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Market Updates

Weekly Market Update - Dec 28, 2024

Market Statistics Report for December 28, 2024
 
Market Dashboard – Dashboard
 
This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.
 
All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa County, a large part of Pinal County and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.
 
All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land,
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.
 
 

Daily Market Snapshot

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan
area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very
small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.

Cromford Market Index
 
Dec 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest
cities.
 
 
Cromford Market Index Commentary
 
This week we see the market improving significantly for sellers over the last month. We have 14 large
cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and only 3 showing a
decrease.
 
The average change in CMI over the past month is +6.2% while last week we saw +2.9%.
 

Again we should not get too excited about this improvement, because the seasonal patterns cause
supply to decline throughout December and most of the good news is down to these seasonal supply
reductions. However, the 6.2% average improvement in the CMI is better than the 2.0% rise we saw
this time last year. That's one for the optimists to savor.

 

Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Gilbert are all giving us double figure percentage
improvements. Not far behind are Chandler and Scottsdale. The only cities that have not managed an
improvement are once again Cave Creek, Maricopa and Surprise.

We now have 9 cities that are seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets.

 
Quarterly Median Sales Price – Southwest Valley
 
Dec 23 - The median sales price for the Southwest Valley looks like this:
 

 

We included Apache Junction (only the parts in Maricopa County), Chandler, Gilbert, Guadalupe, Mesa,
Queen Creek (only the parts in Maricopa County), Sun Lakes and Tempe. We did not include
Ahwatukee.

The median sales price of $509,900 is 7.6% higher than Maricopa County as a whole. In Q1 2018 it
was 5.7% higher, so the Southeast Valley has become slightly more expensive relative to the rest of
Maricopa County.
 
It is down about 2% from 2Q 2022 though up about 13% from 1Q 2023. This is far better than the West
Valley, but not as good as the Northeast Valley.
 
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
1. The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024,
due to inflation. So the $509,900 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $472,357 in 2Q 2022.
2. Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. The percentage
increased from 13% in 2Q 2022 to 46% in 4Q 2024. The median value has increased from $3,000 to
$10,000.
 
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the Southeast Valley is about
10% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022. Therefore the median Southeast Valley home has
become cheaper by a smaller percentage than the median home across Maricopa County as a whole
(down 12%).
 
 
Quarterly Median Sales Price – West Valley
 
Dec 21 - The median sales price for the Southwest Valley looks like this:
 
We included Aguila, Arlington, Avondale, Buckeye, El Mirage, Glendale, Goodyear, Laveen, Litchfield
Park, Morristown, Palo Verde, Peoria, Sun City, Sun City West, Surprise, Tolleson, Tonopah, Waddell,
Wickenburg, Wittmann and Youngtown.
 
The median sales price of $425,222 is almost midway between Pinal County and Maricopa County as
a whole.
 
It is down about 7% from 2Q 2022 though up about 6% from 1Q 2023.
 
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
1. The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024,
due to inflation. So, the $425,222 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $394,000 in 2Q 2022.
2. Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. The percentage of
transactions that included seller concessions increased from 12% in 2Q 2022 to 55% in 4Q 2024. The
median value has increased from $3,000 to $10,000.
 
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the West Valley is about 15%
lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022. Therefore, the median West Valley home has become
cheaper by a greater percentage than the median home across Maricopa County as a whole (down
12%).
 
 

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