This Dashboard provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of the overall residential resale market.

 

All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa County, a large part of Pinal County and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these usually
constitute a very small percentage of total sales and have very little effect on the data.

 

All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land,
commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

 

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix metropolitan
area. The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions
recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, the majority of Pinal county and a small
part of Yavapai county. In addition, "out of area" listings recorded in ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very
small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the statistics.

Cromford Market Index
Oct 17 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest
cities.

Cromford Market Index Commentary

 

On September 11, the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11% according to Mortgage News
Daily. Today it stands at 6.68%. This was not what most people were expecting, and it has taken a lot
of enthusiasm away from potential buyers and given that we have a lot more sellers than this time last
year, most places are seeing the balance in the market move slowly in favor of buyers.

 

There are now only 4 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past
month. This is down from 5 last week. We have 13 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two
largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa. However, Phoenix is only down 1% and is looking relatively strong.

 

The average change in CMI over the past month is -4.0%. Last week we saw -3.3%. After a strong
period a month ago, Paradise Valley has quickly turned around and is the worst performer losing 23%
over the most recent month.

 

Tempe, a pretty small market, is now the only city showing a respectable percentage gain of 9%, while
the remaining green dots are Cave Creek. Surprise and Maricopa. These 3 are up 4% or less. Other
than PV, the largest declines are to be found in the Southwest - Avondale, Goodyear and Buckeye.

7 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 4 of these are below 120, so they only favor
sellers by a small margin. We have 5 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets.

 

Only 1 city (Fountain Hills) is still over 140, and 2 are now below 70.

Among the secondary cities we see major weakness in Anthem, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Laveen,
Litchfield Park, Sun City and Sun City West. Relatively strong is El Mirage.

 

Oct 19 - Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable housing market indicators
but is rarely measured other than by the Cromford® Report. In contrast average days on market is
comparatively dull and meaningless yet measured and reported almost everywhere. We recommend
ignoring average days on market. It might be interesting for a specific single listing, but the statistical
average reveals little useful information about the state of the market.

 

Our month-to-date listing success rate is 71% which is nothing special, but at least it is above the longterm average of 68%. But it is also below last year at this time when we measured 75%. This tells us
that the market is close to normal and not improving much. However, we may not feel like it as close to
normal, because between 2011 and 2022 the market stayed above normal for almost the entire period.

 

Normal feels much worse than 2011-2022. Also we have not had much experience of normal in the last
24 years. It has mostly been better or worse than normal.

Those who were active between 2006 and 2011 will realize how much worse it was back then, when
the listing success rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%. Far more listings failed than
succeeded for a full 5-year period.

 

We can also see how unusually strong the market was from 2020 to 2022 when the listing success rate
exceeded 90% for long periods.

Studying the data reveals that listing success is generally much higher than average for the lower end
of the market and much lower for the higher end. Right now the success rate for listings of $2 million
and above is 50.6% while than for those priced between $250,000 and $400,00 is around 79%.

 

However, properties priced extremely cheaply, under $200,000, have a low success rate because there
are usually some serious disadvantages causing them to be priced so far below the median home price.
Today we measure a 56% success rate for these.

 

Be careful of paying too much attention to listing success rate when you are looking at a small sample
size, such as a single ZIP code or small city. These numbers fluctuate wildly and provide little useful
information. The same caution applies to any small area such as a subdivision. You need a decent
amount of data to apply statistical principles.

 

1. Buckeye 79.5%
2. Peoria 77.9%
3. Chandler 77.7%
4. Queen Creek 77.1%
5. Gilbert 75.9%
6. Avondale 75.9%
7. Glendale 73.7%
8. Maricopa 74.5%
9. Surprise 72.3%
10. Mesa 72.6%
11. Fountain Hills 72.2%
12. Tempe 71.9%
13. Goodyear 71.2%
14. Phoenix 71.1%
15. Scottsdale 65.7%
16. Cave Creek 60.8%
17. Paradise Valley 39.2%